Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but very few government figures or activists want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Each writes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has has something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
